Toms Place, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

600
FXUS65 KREV 262207
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
207 PM PST Thu Dec 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Wet and windy weather continues through Friday, with valley
  rain, mountain snow, and a burst of strong winds early Friday
  morning for the Sierra Front and the Eastern Sierra.

* Another storm arrives Sunday, bringing more Sierra snow, valley
  rain, and gusty winds.

* Dry and milder weather returns next week with occasional light
  showers and valley inversions possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Current Storm - through Friday:

 * Winds: Strong gusts up to 60+ mph are likely early Friday for
   the Reno-Carson-Minden area and Mono County. Surrounding areas
   will see gusts of 45+ mph. Sierra ridges may see gusts up to
   140 mph, creating hazardous conditions for travel and
   backcountry recreation. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories
   are in effect.

 * Precipitation: Expect Sierra snow above 6000 ft, with totals
   exceeding 12 inches along the highest passes. Valley rain will
   result in wet roads, with slick conditions possible in colder
   areas. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for northeast
   California, the Greater Lake Tahoe Area, and Mono County.

 * Travel impacts: Be prepared for difficult travel due to snow
   and high winds. Check road conditions with CalTrans and NDOT,
   and flight schedules before traveling.


Break in Weather - Saturday:

* A brief dry period is expected Saturday, with increasing winds
  along ridges in the evening.


Next Storm - Late Saturday Night-Sunday:

 * Winds: Another round of strong winds with gusts up to 50+ mph
   in valleys and 100+ mph on Sierra ridges.

 * Precipitation: Light to moderate snow accumulations, with 2-6
   inches possible at higher passes such as Donner Summit and
   Carson Pass. Snow levels will start near 8000 feet Saturday
   night before dropping to 5500-6000 feet by Sunday evening.

 * Travel Impacts: Strong winds and snow may create additional
   travel challenges.


Next Week:

* Drier and milder conditions return, but valley inversions and
  light showers are possible. Stay updated on conditions and
  travel safely!

-Johnston

&&

.AVIATION...

* Strong W/NW flow aloft will persist through the weekend with waves
  to pass through late tonight/Friday and again Sunday. Showers will
  continue to favor the Sierra with brief periods of spillover.
  Winds will also continue to be strong with each system with
  rotors, moderate to severe turbulence and LLWS.

* Snow levels will remain high enough to precluded snow
  accumulation for area terminals. Even at KMMH, where it will
  snow at times, precipitation intensity will be very light as
  storms focus north of that area. Periods of MVFR and terrain
  obscurement(brief IFR conditions) for KTRK-KTVL. Brief MVFR at
  KMMH with VFR lower elevation sites in brief rain showers.

* FL100 winds will continue to average 50+ kts with periods of
  elevated winds to 70 kts associated with each wave. Some of latest
  guidance indicates FL100 winds peaking around 80 kts at 12Z Friday
  with downslope signature apparent along the lee of the Sierra
  overnight. Given the W/NW trajectory of winds, would not be
  surprised to see surface gusts 65+ kt for a 2-4 hour window from
  KMEV-KMMH (30% chance) overnight.

* Quiet stretch of weather expected Mon-Thu (New Year`s travel
  plans) with VFR outside of Sierra valley fog and much lighter
  winds.

Hohmann

&&

.AVALANCHE...

Two winter storms will impact the Sierra, the first through Friday
morning, and the second late Saturday night into Sunday. The
first storm will bring light to moderate snow accumulations to the
Sierra and strong winds, especially late tonight into Friday
morning. The second storm looks to bring much lighter snowfall
accumulations with the main impact being strong, gusty winds.

Storm 1 (Through Friday):

 * Timing: Snow levels rising to 8000 feet today; precipitation
   peaks tonight into Friday morning.

 * Snow Levels: Initial snow levels near 5500 feet, rising to
   8000 feet by Friday.

 * Winds: Sustained ridge winds above 70 mph with gusts up to 140
   mph, contributing to wind shear at ridgetop level.

 * Precipitation: Up to 2 inches of liquid equivalent along the Sierra
   crest in the Tahoe Basin and 0.90-1.50 inches of liquid
   equivalent along the Sierra crest in the Eastern Sierra, with
   snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour between 9 PM tonight
   and 6 AM PST Friday.

 * Probabilities: 50-80% chance of SWE exceeding 1 inch in 24 hours
   above 7000 feet increasing from south to north along the
   Sierralimited solar intensity due to dense cloud cover.

Storm 2 (Sunday):

 * Timing: Precipitation begins late Saturday, peaks Sunday, and
   transitions to showers Sunday night.

 * Snow Levels: Falling from 8000 feet Saturday night to
   5500-6000 feet by Sunday evening.

 * Winds: Sustained ridge winds continue above 65 mph, with gusts
   potentially exceeding 100 mph.

 * Precipitation: 0.75 inches of liquid equivalent along the Sierra
   crest west of Lake Tahoe and up 0.10-0.50 inches south into
   the Eastern Sierra, with snowfall rates exceeding 0.5 inches
   per hour at times.

 * Probabilities: 15-40% chance of SWE exceeding 1 inch in 24 hours
   above 7000 feetlimited solar intensity due to dense cloud
   cover.

-Johnston

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Two winter storms will impact the Sierra, the first through
Friday morning, and the second late Saturday night into Sunday.
With higher snow levels with the Saturday-Sunday system, minor
rises on area creeks and streams are expected across northeast
California and the northern Sierra. At this time, no flooding is
expected.

-Johnston

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM PST Friday NVZ005.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon PST Friday NVZ002.

     High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM PST Friday NVZ001-003.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon NVZ004.

CA...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM PST Friday CAZ070.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon PST Friday CAZ071>073.

     High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM PST Friday CAZ073.

&&

$$