Toms Place, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

371
FXUS65 KREV 070845
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
145 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Generally warm and dry through midweek with typical afternoon
  breezes for much of western Nevada.

* Low 10-20% chances for showers and thunderstorms this
  afternoon.

* Later this week a cooling trend will lead to near average
  temperatures by the weekend, with increased breezes but limited
  chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A weak shortwave trough moving into central CA will produce
another area of mid-level moisture and a bit more forcing than
yesterday, resulting in another low-end chance for afternoon
showers with isolated thunder. The area of forcing is a little
more broad with the shower risk extending from northeast
CA/northwest NV southward across the eastern Sierra and western NV
mainly west of US-95. Dry low levels with forecast downdraft CAPE
values between 800-1000 J/kg typically correspond to potential
gusts of 40-50 mph, with mainly virga and only spotty light rain
reaching the surface--similar to the showers that moved across far
western NV Sunday afternoon.

This trough will exit to the south and east on Tuesday while the
upper ridge responsible for our early October warmth becomes
flatter by Wednesday-Thursday. This will bring dry conditions back
to the region, while temperatures in the mid 80s for lower
elevations/upper 70s for Sierra communities cool a few degrees by
Thursday, but still about 5-8 degrees above average for this part
of October. We`ll also start to see winds trend upward Wednesday-
Thursday although projected gusts only increase to around 25-30
mph.

The latest guidance is trending a bit slower with an area of low
pressure approaching the west coast, delaying further cooling by
about a day with Friday now looking to see high temperatures and
wind gusts similar to Thursday. Then for the weekend, as this low
moves inland, temperatures are more likely to dip further to near
mid-October averages in the 70s for lower elevations and around
70 for Sierra communities. Confidence remains relatively low for
getting meaningful rain into eastern CA-western NV as this system
is expected to weaken as it moves inland. About 25% of the cluster
ensemble guidance brings low-end shower chances as far south as
the Tahoe and Reno-Carson regions by Saturday-Saturday night, with
shower chances currently favoring northeast CA-northwest NV. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

* For today, another mid level cloud deck is expected with
  isolated shower/thunder chances (10-15%) for all terminals
  between 21-02Z. While little or no rainfall or reduced
  visibility is expected, these showers could produce brief
  downdraft/outflow gusts to 40 kt.

* Otherwise, VFR conditions with dry weather will prevail through
  late this week. Light winds Tuesday will be followed by an
  increase in SW-W winds Wednesday-Friday, with gusts mainly 20-25
  kt and possibly a bit stronger depending on the track of an
  incoming Pacific trough. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$